2024 may set new record for global heating, warns UN
By La Croix (with AFP) |
January 16, 2024
2024 may well surpass the heat record established last year, the UN warned, urging a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change.
Influenced by the El Niño weather phenomenon, the warming trend – which saw each month from June to December 2023 set its own heat record – is expected to continue this year, according to the January 12 report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations' specialized agency whose mandate covers weather, climate and water resources.
Scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have calculated the probability -- there is a one in three chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023, and a 99% chance that 2024 will rank among the five hottest years ever recorded.
Celeste Saulo, who recently assumed leadership of the WMO, warned that El Niño, which emerged in mid-2023, could further increase temperatures in 2024. "Given that El Niño typically has the most significant impact on global temperatures after its peak, 2024 could be even hotter than last year," she said.
El Niño is one cause of last year's severe heat. This naturally occurring phenomenon, marked by warmer waters in the Pacific, disrupts jet streams and weakens trade winds, raising temperatures around the world. But the more general cause is climate change, which exacerbates El Niño.
Wide margin
The WMO's annual report on global temperatures – compiling several recognized databases – confirms that 2023 was "by far" the hottest year ever recorded.
The average global annual temperature in 2023 was 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This is slightly lower than the 1.48 °C calculated by the European monitoring service Copernicus in its annual report. The Paris Climate Agreement signed in December 2015 aims to limit the increase to 1.5 °C.
According to NOAA, the global surface temperature in 2023 was 1.18 °C higher than the 20th Century average. It was also warmer by a record margin of 0.15 °C than 2016, which had previously been the warmest year.
The Arctic, northern North America, Central Asia, the North Atlantic, and the eastern tropical Pacific were particularly warmer, according to the NOAA report.
"The greatest challenge"
For Saulo, climate change is "the greatest challenge humanity faces." A WMO report released in November revealed that concentrations of the three main heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere -- carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide -- continued to rise in 2023 after reaching record levels in 2022.
"Climate change is intensifying – and it is unequivocally due to human activities," says Saulo, highlighting the urgency of the situation. "We cannot afford to wait any longer. We are already acting, but we must do more, and we must do it quickly." "We need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources," she insists, echoing many scientists.
"Catastrophic future"
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has denounced human actions that are "burning the Earth." "2023 is just a glimpse of the catastrophic future that awaits us if we do not act now," he warned.
The WMO highlighted that since the 1980s, each decade had been warmer than the previous one, and that the nine hottest years ever recorded all occurred between 2015 and 2023. The WMO compiles data from six reputable sources, and its publication is authoritative.
According to the organization, the average temperature over the decade from 2014 to 2023 was 1.20 °C higher than the pre-industrial average. Even if the average surface temperature of the Earth exceeds the 1.5 °C threshold in 2024, it does not mean that the world has failed to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming below this level. This would only occur after several consecutive years above this reference level.
Read more at: https://international.la-croix.com/news/environment/2024-may-set-new-record-for-global-heating-warns-un/19016
By La Croix (with AFP) |
January 16, 2024
2024 may well surpass the heat record established last year, the UN warned, urging a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change.
Influenced by the El Niño weather phenomenon, the warming trend – which saw each month from June to December 2023 set its own heat record – is expected to continue this year, according to the January 12 report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations' specialized agency whose mandate covers weather, climate and water resources.
Scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have calculated the probability -- there is a one in three chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023, and a 99% chance that 2024 will rank among the five hottest years ever recorded.
Celeste Saulo, who recently assumed leadership of the WMO, warned that El Niño, which emerged in mid-2023, could further increase temperatures in 2024. "Given that El Niño typically has the most significant impact on global temperatures after its peak, 2024 could be even hotter than last year," she said.
El Niño is one cause of last year's severe heat. This naturally occurring phenomenon, marked by warmer waters in the Pacific, disrupts jet streams and weakens trade winds, raising temperatures around the world. But the more general cause is climate change, which exacerbates El Niño.
Wide margin
The WMO's annual report on global temperatures – compiling several recognized databases – confirms that 2023 was "by far" the hottest year ever recorded.
The average global annual temperature in 2023 was 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This is slightly lower than the 1.48 °C calculated by the European monitoring service Copernicus in its annual report. The Paris Climate Agreement signed in December 2015 aims to limit the increase to 1.5 °C.
According to NOAA, the global surface temperature in 2023 was 1.18 °C higher than the 20th Century average. It was also warmer by a record margin of 0.15 °C than 2016, which had previously been the warmest year.
The Arctic, northern North America, Central Asia, the North Atlantic, and the eastern tropical Pacific were particularly warmer, according to the NOAA report.
"The greatest challenge"
For Saulo, climate change is "the greatest challenge humanity faces." A WMO report released in November revealed that concentrations of the three main heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere -- carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide -- continued to rise in 2023 after reaching record levels in 2022.
"Climate change is intensifying – and it is unequivocally due to human activities," says Saulo, highlighting the urgency of the situation. "We cannot afford to wait any longer. We are already acting, but we must do more, and we must do it quickly." "We need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources," she insists, echoing many scientists.
"Catastrophic future"
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has denounced human actions that are "burning the Earth." "2023 is just a glimpse of the catastrophic future that awaits us if we do not act now," he warned.
The WMO highlighted that since the 1980s, each decade had been warmer than the previous one, and that the nine hottest years ever recorded all occurred between 2015 and 2023. The WMO compiles data from six reputable sources, and its publication is authoritative.
According to the organization, the average temperature over the decade from 2014 to 2023 was 1.20 °C higher than the pre-industrial average. Even if the average surface temperature of the Earth exceeds the 1.5 °C threshold in 2024, it does not mean that the world has failed to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming below this level. This would only occur after several consecutive years above this reference level.
Read more at: https://international.la-croix.com/news/environment/2024-may-set-new-record-for-global-heating-warns-un/19016